Peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet by Zeina Jamaluddine, Hanan Abukmail, and other researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) applying capture-recapture statistical analysis to estimate traumatic injury mortality in Gaza from October 7, 2023 to June 30, 2024. Using multiple data sources, including Palestinian Ministry of Health records, social media obituaries, and casualty reports, study estimates that 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury occurred in the first 9 months of the War on Gaza, suggesting that Ministry of Health figures under-report deaths by about 41% (capturing roughly 59% of actual deaths from traumatic injury) due to data loss under conditions of bombardment and communications blackout. It is essential for epidemiologists, public health researchers, and anyone engaged in methodological debates about Palestinian casualty data. The capture-recapture methodology provides a rigorous statistical framework for estimating the gap between reported and actual deaths, and is important for understanding the true scale of mortality during the War on Gaza.
